REPORT: OSUN 7th Largest Economy In Nigeria – Renaissance Capital

This exercise is an attempt to develop a greater understanding of Nigeria at state level. As we had expected, our analysis confirms that Lagos State is Nigeria’s biggest economy, producing c. 12% of the country’s national income. Post-rebasing of GDP in 2013, we expect Lagos State economy to become Africa’s 13th biggest economy at c. $45bn – equivalent to Ghana.
Households in Nigeria’s southern states are better educated and have smaller household sizes. States that cluster around key commercial states also benefit from externalities. In the SW where Lagos State has the highest per-capita income, Oyo and Osun States also score highly.
Consumer companies are likely to find the greatest opportunities in states with greater purchasing power, as indicted by relatively high per capita income, including Lagos, the FCT Abuja, as well as Oyo, Osun in the SW and Kaduna and Nassarawa (both next to the FCT Abuja), and the Niger Delta states. We see opportunities for banks to expand services and employees into states that have a combination of high income and population densities, as that will provide the footfall required to open a bank branch. States that fit this profile are Anambra, Imo and Abia in the SE region; Akwa Ibom and Rivers in the Niger Delta region; and Osun in the SW.
Below is the Socioeconomic profile of Nigeria’s states

Figure 38: Socioeconomic profile of Nigeria’s states States	GDP, $bn (2012E)	% of Nigeria’s GDP	Population , mn (2012E)	% of Nigeria’s population	GDP per capita, $ (2012E)	Net secondary school attendance rate, ratio (2007)
Lagos	31.2	11.4	10.7	6.5	2,916	85
Kano	16.8	6.2	11.0	6.7	1,525	28
Oyo	14.2	5.2	6.5	4.0	2,165	71
Kaduna	13.3	4.9	7.2	4.4	1,860	49
Rivers	11.3	4.2	6.1	3.7	1,859	75
Katsina	10.6	3.9	6.8	4.1	1,554	17
Osun	9.4	3.5	4.0	2.4	2,356	77
Imo	9.1	3.3	4.6	2.8	1,983	74
Anambra	8.9	3.3	4.9	3.0	1,814	72
Akwa Ibom	8.2	3.0	4.6	2.8	1,783	70
Borno	8.0	2.9	4.9	3.0	1,631	8
Bauchi	7.8	2.9	5.5	3.3	1,432	5
Niger	7.6	2.8	4.6	2.8	1,631	56
FCT Abuja	6.8	2.5	1.6	1.0	4,094	67
Edo	6.7	2.4	3.8	2.3	1,756	70
Abia	6.3	2.3	3.4	2.1	1,855	79
Plateau	6.2	2.3	3.8	2.3	1,640	46
Benue	6.1	2.2	5.0	3.0	1,226	56
Delta	6.0	2.2	4.8	2.9	1,249	75
Ondo	5.9	2.2	4.1	2.5	1,457	76
Zamfara	5.7	2.1	3.8	2.3	1,492	18
Sokoto	5.7	2.1	4.3	2.6	1,313	15
Enugu	5.0	1.8	3.8	2.3	1,299	70
Kogi	4.8	1.8	3.9	2.4	1,235	74
Adamawa	4.6	1.7	3.7	2.3	1,233	11
Nasarawa	4.4	1.6	2.2	1.3	1,997	57
Jigawa	4.4	1.6	5.1	3.1	853	23
Kebbi	4.2	1.5	3.8	2.3	1,104	21
Cross River	4.2	1.5	3.4	2.1	1,242	71
Ekiti	4.2	1.5	2.8	1.7	1,495	85
Ogun	4.2	1.5	4.4	2.7	952	75
Kwara	4.0	1.5	2.8	1.7	1,454	70
Taraba	3.9	1.4	2.7	1.6	1,444	6
Bayelsa	3.6	1.3	2.0	1.2	1,816	74
Ebonyi	3.6	1.3	2.6	1.6	1,400	56
Yobe	3.3	1.2	2.7	1.7	1,207	7
Gombe	2.9	1.1	2.8	1.7	1,041	16
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, National Population Commission, Renaissance Capital estimates